Reading festive demand spikes without overbuying

Consumer goods brands in Thailand often treat festive weeks as a single surge. In practice, Songkran, Chinese New Year retail builds, and December gift sets each leave a different trail in sell-through.

Start by marking the promotional and calendar windows on the same timeline as your weekly volume. Peaks that sit only inside a known campaign belong in uplift; volume that remains after the campaign ends belongs in base demand.

Watch the two to three weeks after a festival. If stores are still clearing gift packs while everyday SKUs stall, your next buy should shrink the gift assortment earlier—not cut the core line.

When history is short, use a sister SKU or prior-year shape as a guide, then widen the range rather than inventing a precise number. Planners make better calls with an honest band than with a false single point.

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