When eighteen months of history is not enough

Eighteen months is a useful default for seasonality in many Thai grocery categories. It is not a guarantee when the brand entered modern trade mid-year or changed pack size.

Flag structural breaks: a new key account, a factory outage, or a competitor launch that permanently moved share. Including those months as “normal” will bend every future forecast.

For new SKUs, we prefer early sell-through by store cluster plus a cautious analogy to a peer item, rather than forcing a full seasonal model on thin data.

Document the judgment call in the forecast pack. Future planners should see why a number sits high or low—not only the number itself.

Talk with us about a related engagement or return to all field notes.